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NSTAR Smart Grid Pilot Technical Performance Report #1: AMR Based Dynamic Pricing
Stuart Schare, Erik Gilbert, Bethany Glinsmann, Mike Sherman and Jane Hummer

As an interim evaluation report, this Technical Performance Report (TPR) is based on less data and fewer survey responses than will be available at the end of the pilot. In particular, the billing data used for estimation of energy and peak demand savings covers the period January 2012 through September 2012; thus, complete data is not available for either a full winter or summer season, and there is only nine months’ worth of data overall, compared to the 24 months that will be available for the final evaluation report. As a consequence, there is a relatively high degree of uncertainty in the energy (kWh) and peak period demand (kW) savings estimates, reflected in the report by 90% confidence intervals on the impact results. The seasonal energy savings estimates are particularly affected by these data limitations since they are based on at most five monthly energy consumption values for each participant, whereas the peak period demand analysis utilizes hourly values during peak hours from all non‐holiday weekdays. The impact of these data limitations becomes more evident in the breakdown of savings by participant sub‐group, where sample sizes drop from between roughly 300 and 900 (depending on the pilot test group in question) to often less than 100 (e.g, high‐use participants in the Critical Peak Rebate test group).

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